Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 29.714133 32.068794 34.621512 37.612726 41.045391 44.890666 49.565868
2025-03-23 26.452051 29.647043 33.337873 37.983158 43.773305 50.896349 60.565621
2025-03-30 24.059430 27.615318 31.894549 37.545853 45.014166 54.870397 69.492529
2025-04-06 22.389670 26.167584 30.859584 37.297650 46.226394 58.747517 78.900901
2025-04-13 20.570823 24.329690 29.097015 35.811166 45.443211 59.559970 83.742798
2025-04-20 19.952603 23.947080 29.147236 36.717641 48.068484 65.727679 98.790053
2025-04-27 19.086427 23.158076 28.563409 36.634477 49.163477 69.628162 110.999139
2025-05-04 18.834165 23.156562 29.034341 38.094140 52.801049 78.440944 136.271347
2025-05-11 18.213851 22.602248 28.671861 38.243665 54.303552 83.739688 156.387808
2025-05-18 17.897186 22.442532 28.851650 39.229727 57.337848 92.637964 190.767014
2025-05-25 17.128523 21.597329 27.963376 38.419572 57.060985 94.694830 207.134256
2025-06-01 16.079092 20.304562 26.340828 36.294265 54.145687 90.541740 201.587687
2025-06-08 14.969624 18.977128 24.743722 34.350062 51.851399 88.481062 206.823681
2025-06-15 14.503362 18.568404 24.527259 34.719612 54.073088 97.577218 263.896867
2025-06-22 13.912194 17.937467 23.917209 34.344583 54.767143 103.307084 318.123399
2025-06-29 13.414760 17.414199 23.433016 34.129858 55.742770 110.192168 395.876440
2025-07-06 12.733447 16.580049 22.402573 32.839939 54.232535 109.631925 427.027252
2025-07-13 12.535204 16.464318 22.511841 33.627088 57.396042 124.392243 647.450800
2025-07-20 12.183693 16.094253 22.180040 33.554941 58.598637 133.639217 903.181956
2025-07-27 12.104390 16.138735 22.531745 34.819222 63.253128 158.415908 2079.165279
2025-08-03 11.828381 15.859591 22.318373 34.948493 65.114852 173.916875 4767.336761
2025-08-10 11.690030 15.790609 22.457180 35.799882 69.089354 203.076738 232372.546353
2025-08-17 11.312803 15.321909 21.874326 35.100515 68.641433 209.592350 NaN